Not Rounders Theory

In the poker game of baseball, the Red Sox always get burned on the river.

Name: Matt

Friday, April 01, 2005

Is this finally The Year?


As opening day approaches, Red Sox fans once again find themselves dusting off their caps, gobbling up dispatches from Fort Myers, and asking their family, friends, and neighbors the same hopeful, dreadful question: will this be the season the Boston nine brings home the World Series championship that has escaped the team for 87 years? NRT has a look at the year ahead.

On the offensive side of the diamond, Terry Francona's charges return largely unchanged. The signing of Edgar Renteria to fill the void left by the exile of fallen angel Nomar Garciaparra represents the sole significant discrepancy between the 2005 squad and last year's bunch of wild-haired brutes who dragged the rest of the league's pitching off to their cave and ran up 949 runs on it. Theo Epstein again demonstrated a deft touch for lesser deals by exchanging the largesse he accumulated for the postseason run of 2004 for more complimentary role players. Most notably, ALCS goat Dave Roberts was returned to the west coast for outfield depth (former Garciaparra roomie Jay Payton), a utility infielder (Ramon Vazquez), a respectable pitching prospect (David Pauley), and a Samsonite XXL duffel full of money ($2.65 million). Francona has indicated that he will take a dynamic approach to lineup construction this year, tailoring Boston's attack to take advantage of the platoon splits of Trot Nixon and newcomer Renteria in the second spot behind Johnny Damon. Last year's #2, Mark Bellhorn, will begin the year in the nine hole where he will try to improve on last season's total of 18 opposing pitchers lulled to sleep.

Unlike the offense, the pitching staff has undergone a relatively transformative facelift. Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe departed for the National League via free agency, leaving many to wonder just how foul a turd Lowe's 2004 must have been for the two of them to combine for just a 4.59 ERA in a shade under 400 innings. Their replacements in the rotation are NRT favorite Matt Clement and former Boston public enemy David Wells, with the talented Wade Miller recovering from injury in the wings. Returning are Curt Schilling, Bronson Arroyo, and NRT matinee idol Tim Wakefield. This group's fortunes rest perhaps a bit uncomfortably on a collection of unreliable body parts (Schilling's ankle, Wells' back, and Miller's shoulder). NRT expects solid performances from the junior members and Wakefield, but the tale of 2005 will likely be written by what the infirmary is able to produce. A similar narrative describes the bullpen, where much is invested in the old (Alik Timbree) and fragile (Matt Mantei). If the bridge to Keith Foulke holds up, the Sox will be in very good shape. If it fails, they will get wet. They may also lose a lot of games in the late innings, but mostly they'll just get wet.

Defensively, the Sox look sound though not spectacular. Leather specialists Doug Mientkiewicz and Pokey Reese are gone, dashing the respective hopes of local spelling bee prodigies and NRT’s ill advised Tickle-Me-Pokey plush toy venture alike. In the wake of their departures, Renteria is a seamless transition at shortstop, where he handles the position with graceful aplomb. Kevin Millar, on the other hand, will provide frequent reminders that first base is not a premium defensive position. David McCarty has been retained for the unique dual role of Millar’s late-inning defensive caddy and blowout emergency pitcher. It will be a grave error if he sees significant time at the plate, however, where the best that can be hoped for is that he will lose control of the bat and injure a key member of the Yankees. Pinch-hitting duties should fall principally to Kevin Youkilis, the Greek God of Overused Superlatives. In the outfield, Payton will be an eminently capable defender at all three positions as he takes over the fourth outfielder’s spot from Gabe Kapler, recently named to People Japan’s list of 100 Sexiest Gaijin.

Overall, the Sox appear well-armed for the 2005 campaign, with a potent offense, the promise of a deep pitching staff, and very credible defense. As they prepare to embark on yet another pursuit of that elusive world title, their eyes turn from the welcoming warmth of the City of Palms to the cold, dark monolith in the Bronx. Their fortitude will be tested early this year as they face down their arch-rivals in the season opener behind a fat slob who used to call the Stadium home. It is tempting to read a bit of the old saw, “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” into this paradoxical situation, but for the Red Sox each season begins anew with brighter sentiments. If you can’t beat ‘em, try again next year.